Cold War 2022
Lt. Col. Robert Maginnis (ret.):
The war in Ukraine is another indicator of our new cold war, which pits the U.S. and its allies against what I label the alliance of evil, Russia and China, which will create levels of anxiety not experienced since the end of the old Cold War.
This new cold war is different from the old war which was mostly about ideology, communism versus democracy, pitting the U.S. and the former Soviet Union in a death struggle. Today’s conflict is between opposing world views, liberty versus authoritarianism.
There are at least 6 indicators of that new cold war, which I address in my 2018 book, "Alliance of Evil." Consider some recent examples of Chinese and Russian behavior associated with a few of those indicators.
Diplomatic indicator
Relations between the U.S. and both Russia and China are in the toilet. For example, on Feb. 26, 2022, Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president, said Moscow may react to Western sanctions imposed for the Ukraine invasion by severing all diplomatic ties.
World order indicator
Many Western leaders indicate that China and Russia are seeking to "replace the existing international rules" with their own. European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen accused Moscow of a "blatant attempt" to revamp global order. She said that Russia and China want to "replace the existing international rules – they prefer the rule of the strongest to the rule of law, intimidation instead of self-determination."
Economic indicator
Both Russia and China are persistent violators of economic and trade agreements. China seeks ascendancy as the world’s dominant producer of industrial goods and is doing that by violating many World Trade Organization rules, cornering global markets on key commodities, conducting financial warfare using mercantilist behaviors and manipulating its currency. President Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative, that touches many countries, is a "debt trap," according to British MI6 chief, Richard Moore. It leaves behind half-built bridges, overbudget railways and mountains of debt, Moore said.
Defense budget indicator
Both Russia and China spend more of their gross domestic product on defense than the global average, and much of their security investment is hidden, which makes comparisons with the U.S. meaningless.
Chinese defense spending has dramatically increased each year (15.8%) over the past three decades, by more than 250% over the past decade, according to IHS Janes. China’s defense budget amounts to 2.5% of GDP, according to the Pentagon.
Large, sophisticated military indicator
Thanks to heavy investment, both Russia and China are building large and sophisticated militaries to contest the US on a peer basis. The Pentagon’s 2021 report on China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) indicates it fields the largest force in the world and seeks "complete PLA modernization by 2035." Further, as evidence of its global ambitions, the "PLA [is] developing capabilities to conduct joint long-range precision strikes across domains, increasingly sophisticated space, counterspace, and cyber capabilities, and accelerating the large-scale expansion of its nuclear forces."
Nuclear forces indicator
Although Russia has a giant nuclear arsenal (6,800 warheads), and threatens to abandon the New START treaty which limits each country, China is creating a serious new threat. The PLA is modernizing and rapidly expanding its nuclear forces – land, sea and air delivery platforms. It has increased it capacity to produce plutonium-239, necessary to build nuclear weapons. Further, the 2021 Pentagon report indicates the regime is expected to accelerate weapons production to at least 1,000 warheads by 2030.
